We Shut Our Borders. House Prices Rose 38%.
We Shut Our Borders. House Prices Rose 38%.
6 reasons the "blame immigrants for house prices" argument doesn't add up.
One Nation's claim:
"House prices are too high because of excessive immigration. Slash immigration, ban foreign buyers, and housing will become affordable again."
— Pauline Hanson & Barnaby Joyce, June 2026
1The COVID Experiment Already Proved This Wrong
During COVID, Australia's international borders were effectively shut for nearly two years. Net overseas migration went negative — more people left than arrived, with a net loss of 89,000 people in 2020-21. [1] Immigration wasn't just reduced — it went backwards.
What happened to house prices?
They went UP — by 38.4%. CoreLogic reported that national dwelling values rose 38.4% from March 2020, adding approximately $227,000 to the median home price. [2] In some regional areas, values jumped over 50%. [3]
If immigration was the primary driver of housing costs, prices should have fallen when we shut the gates. Instead, the system was designed to keep prices high — First Home Owner Grants were tripled, interest rates were slashed to record lows.
2Foreign Buyers Are a Drop in the Ocean
One Nation says ban overseas buyers. Let's look at the actual numbers.
According to the FIRB Register of Foreign Ownership of Residential Land, there were 5,360 foreign purchase transactions in 2022-23, up from 4,228 the year before. [4]
Compare that to total Australian property transactions: PEXA reported transactions exceeded 670,000 nationally in 2023. [5] CoreLogic recorded nearly 500,000 dwelling sales. [6]
| Category | Number |
|---|---|
| Foreign purchases (FIRB Register 2022-23) | 5,360 |
| Total property transactions (PEXA 2023) | >670,000 |
| Est. Australian buyers (Eslake) | ~170,000 |
Even using the most generous estimates, foreign buyers make up less than 6% of purchases. Ban them entirely and 94% of demand stays. That's not a solution — it's a distraction.
3Immigration Cuts Mean Fewer Tradies
Who builds the houses we need?
24% of workers in the building and construction industry were born outside Australia, according to Master Builders Australia. 8% had migrated within the previous decade. [8] The Conversation notes that while 32% of all Australian workers were foreign-born, only 24% of construction workers were — meaning the industry is already under-representing migrant labour. [9]
If you slash immigration, you're not just cutting demand — you're cutting the workforce needed to build supply.
One Nation wants to cap migration at 130,000. Under that number, we'd have fewer brickies, chippies, sparkies, and concreters. Less supply means higher prices. The exact opposite of what they're promising.
4Migrants Don't Compete for the Same Housing
Most migrants arrive as:
- International students — renting share houses and student accommodation
- Skilled workers on temporary visas — renting apartments near work
- Family migrants — moving in with existing relatives
- Humanitarian entrants — government-subsidised housing
They are not generally lining up to buy $1M+ family homes in the suburbs. They're renting rooms and apartments — a different market entirely.
The idea that an international student living in a shared flat in Footscray is driving up the price of a 4-bedder in Wantirna doesn't survive scrutiny.
5The Real Causes (That One Nation Won't Talk About)
If not immigration, then what's actually driving prices up?
| Real Cause | How It Works |
|---|---|
| Negative gearing | Investors get tax breaks on rental losses, incentivising owning multiple properties and bidding up prices |
| 50% CGT discount | Assets held >12 months get half the capital gain tax-free — encourages property speculation over productive investment |
| Zoning & planning | It takes years to get approvals for new housing; state governments control land release |
| NIMBYism | Existing homeowners block new developments near them through council objections |
| Material & labour costs | Supply chain issues, skilled labour shortages, and high material costs drive up build costs |
| Short-term rentals | Airbnb-style rentals take properties off the long-term rental market, reducing available stock |
Not one of these is fixed by blaming migrants. They're all domestic policy choices that successive governments — of both parties — have refused to touch.
6"Too Many People" Is the Lazy Answer
Australia has one of the lowest population densities on Earth. The World Bank reports 3.5 people per square kilometre [10] — compare that to the UK (281/km²), Japan (347/km²), or India (481/km²).
We are the 6th largest country by land mass and one of the most sparsely populated. We don't have a people problem. We have a building problem. A planning problem. A tax policy problem.
Blaming immigrants is easier than fixing any of those — but it won't build a single extra house.
The Bottom Line
The COVID border closure was the perfect natural experiment. Net migration went negative. House prices went up 38.4%. The theory that immigration is the primary driver of housing costs failed the only test that matters.
We can fix housing affordability. But we have to look at the real causes — not the convenient scapegoats.